A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates an increasing number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concern that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these essential drugs.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to emulate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and diminishes appetite. Initially authorized for treating type 2 diabetes, Wegovy, one of the GLP-1 treatments, received FDA approval for weight management in 2021.
Since the shift in use, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have found it challenging to meet the escalating demand for GLP-1 medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which signifies a substantial public health change. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity for continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study leveraged data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though this data may not represent the entire national landscape.
Over the last few years, GLP-1 drugs have gained immense popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with studies showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to prominence, making them among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions in boosting their production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating the number of users in the U.S. may grow to about 31.5 million, or roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.