A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. The study raises concerns regarding potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and decreases appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of these medications with the approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading producers of GLP-1 medications including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are struggling to keep up with the increased demand for these treatments.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about medication shortages and the need to ensure that diabetes patients still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though it may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and potential for weight loss of up to 26%. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, by 2035.