A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of non-diabetic individuals being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for diabetics are declining. This shift raises concerns over potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the increasing demand for these medications, including brands like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023, while those without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment, which marks a significant public health shift. Nevertheless, it raises concerns regarding medication availability for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing benefits, with users reported to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these medications has made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested heavily in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that the market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion worldwide by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate reaching approximately 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.