A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, even as prescriptions for diabetes patients are on the decline. This trend raises alarms regarding potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes management. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their use, approving Wegovy specifically for weight loss.
Following this approval, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the surging demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while new users without the condition increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which indicates a significant shift in public health perspectives. However, it also raises concerns about potential shortages and the necessity for diabetes patients to continue having access to these drugs.”
The study relied on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. The past few years have seen a surge in the popularity of GLP-1 drugs, celebrated for their appetite-suppressing effects and proven capacity to help individuals lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales figures for these medications have transformed Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the increased demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. In response, both companies have invested billions into increasing their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could hit $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate reaching approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.