A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for individuals with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing adequate supplies of GLP-1 drugs—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet soaring demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions conducted an analysis of medical records from 45 million Americans who made at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the percentage of new users of GLP-1 medications with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“The data suggests that more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, highlighting a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this trend also raises alarms about possible medication shortages and the imperative to ensure that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national picture.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users demonstrating the potential to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to positions as some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for many patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will soar to $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will be using these medications by 2035.