A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a trend where the percentage of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing. This trend raises concerns about possible shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the use of GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss was sanctioned by the Food and Drug Administration in 2021. Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which indicates a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the critical need to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The research utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although this data may not represent the entire nation.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with evidence showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but it has simultaneously led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with estimates suggesting that about 31.5 million people, or 9% of the U.S. population, could adopt these medications by 2035.