A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend where the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The researchers caution that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to imitate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and decreases appetite. Originally approved solely for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded approval in 2021 to include Wegovy for weight loss.
Since that time, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to keep pace with the surging demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a decrease in the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the number of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that while this trend highlights the growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity, it also raises significant concerns about ensuring access for diabetes patients amidst rising demand.
The data utilized in the study was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained immense popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, which can lead to weight reductions of up to 26%. The skyrocketing sales of these drugs have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally, though high demand has complicated the fulfillment of some prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to scale up production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications will soar to $105 billion by 2030. They also predict that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments.