A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine has revealed a significant increase in the number of individuals without diabetes prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. This shift has raised concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, specifically for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity management. However, this trend poses a risk of medication shortages, necessitating access for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested heavily in boosting production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated adoption of these drugs by roughly 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.