A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. Researchers have raised concerns about potential shortages of these treatments due to this shift.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, operate by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. The FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021 has contributed to their rising popularity. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have encountered challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy increasing demand.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated a decline in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, highlighted that this trend reflects a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she also emphasized the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients still have access to these essential drugs.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be entirely representative of the national landscape. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained traction for their appetite-suppressing properties, helping users achieve weight loss of up to 26%.
The soaring sales of GLP-1 medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, making them the most valuable companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in securing their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to boost production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with the usage projected to expand to approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for around 9% of the population.