The use of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes is on the rise, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine. The researchers caution that this trend could lead to shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 drug, for weight loss purposes.
Since then, manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to keep up with the soaring demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it raises concerns about potential drug shortages and the need to ensure that diabetic patients maintain access to these important medications.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects and their potential to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The explosive sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally, yet the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have committed significant investments to increase production of these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will soar to $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.