A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study’s authors have expressed concerns that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite, originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight management in 2021, demand has surged.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two major manufacturers of GLP-1 medications—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—are currently facing challenges in producing enough supply to satisfy the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a decline in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health change. However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure continuous access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not provide a nationally representative sample.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity in recent years due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. Sales of these drugs have skyrocketed, elevating Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical firms. However, the heightened demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest significantly in increasing their production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S., which is roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.