A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The researchers caution that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were initially designed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded their approval in 2021 to include the weight-loss drug Wegovy.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been struggling to keep up with the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Meanwhile, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests an expanding recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits these medications offer for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, there are concerns about potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients have continued access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has left some patients struggling to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have committed significant investments to increase production capacity for these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also estimate that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., accounting for about 9% of the population, will adopt these drugs by 2035.