A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The researchers, associated with Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined medical records of over 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023.
The findings reveal a significant shift: the percentage of new GLP-1 users who have type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% in 2019 to above 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25% during the same period. This change suggests that healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the efficacy of GLP-1 medications in addressing obesity, which poses implications for public health.
GLP-1 medications function by imitating a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their application in 2021 to include weight loss with the approval of Wegovy. As demand surges, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two leading manufacturers of GLP-1 drugs, are struggling to meet the production demands for medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The data for the study was derived from healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not fully represent national trends. The popularity of GLP-1 drugs has been attributed to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surging sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the increased demand has led to challenges for many patients in acquiring their prescriptions. In response, both companies are investing heavily to boost production capacity. Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million Americans potentially adopting these treatments by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.