A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable trend: the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing while new prescriptions for those diagnosed with diabetes are decreasing. This shift has raised alarms about potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, originally gaining approval for the management of type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021 further expanded their use. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough of these medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans with at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the number of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, remarked that the data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity management, marking a significant shift in public health strategies. Nonetheless, this shift presents concerns regarding access to treatment for diabetes patients, who may face challenges in obtaining their prescribed medications.
The study utilized data from healthcare software provider TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national landscape. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained traction due to their appetite suppression benefits, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in demand has led to Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk becoming some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for patients in filling prescriptions. Both companies are actively investing billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, expected to adopt these medications by 2035.