A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, even as the number of new prescriptions for diabetics is declining. Researchers warn that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which were originally approved for type 2 diabetes management, function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded approval for the medication Wegovy for weight loss, further driving demand.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in keeping pace with the skyrocketing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate a decline in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked that the data suggests healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the value of these medications for obesity treatment, signifying a significant public health shift. However, he also emphasized concerns regarding medication shortages and the importance of ensuring continuous access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect a national average.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, reportedly helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, yet the high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, anticipating that around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will use these treatments by 2035.