A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. Researchers express concern over this trend, suggesting it could lead to shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized the use of the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss, further expanding the market.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading manufacturers of GLP-1 drugs, are facing challenges in meeting the rising demand for their products, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions involved the analysis of medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this shift implies that more healthcare professionals are recognizing the effectiveness of these medications for addressing obesity. However, it also raises concerns about ensuring that diabetes patients still have adequate access to GLP-1 treatments.
Although the study examined data sourced from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, the overall findings may not be fully representative of the national landscape.
In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The skyrocketing sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies have invested substantially to increase their production capacities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.