A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in prescribing GLP-1 drugs to people without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. The study highlights concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. This shift in usage has led to a struggle for pharmaceutical companies such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to meet the increasing demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. The findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, alongside concerns about ensuring access for diabetic patients.
The data used in the study was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect a national representation. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight loss benefits, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surging sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has also made it challenging for some patients to fill prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production. Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expected adoption among approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.