A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable trend in the prescribing patterns of GLP-1 drugs. It shows an increasing number of prescriptions for these medications being given to individuals without diabetes, while the rate for those with diabetes is declining.
GLP-1 medications, originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, work by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. The FDA broadened their availability in 2021 by approving Wegovy for weight loss, which has contributed to their rising popularity.
Researchers analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023 and found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that while this indicates increased healthcare provider recognition of the benefits of these drugs for obesity treatment, it also raises concerns about potential shortages and access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. The rising demand for GLP-1 drugs has led both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to struggle to keep up with supply, despite investing billions in production enhancements. The financial potential is significant; Morgan Stanley forecasts that the market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, which is approximately 9% of the population.