A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for individuals with diabetes are on the decline. Researchers warn that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. In 2021, the FDA expanded their approval to include Wegovy for weight management. Since then, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the skyrocketing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift signals a growing recognition of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, but it also raises concerns about ensuring access for diabetes patients.
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software firm, which may not reflect national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for GLP-1 medications has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, but it has also resulted in challenges for patients filling their prescriptions. Both firms are investing heavily to increase production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. will adopt these treatments by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.