A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This shift raises concerns among researchers about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications, initially approved for type 2 diabetes, work by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. In 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, specifically for weight loss, and since then, demand for these drugs has surged. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting this growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates a significant public health shift in recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, but it also raises alarms about ensuring continued access for diabetic patients.
The study’s data came from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have garnered attention for their appetite-suppressing qualities, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The increase in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, this surge in demand has led to difficulty for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, adopting these medications by 2035.