A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which marks a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not be representative on a national scale.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The rapid growth in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has led to difficulties in prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. adopting these drugs by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.