A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs for individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers warn that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA later approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Currently, demand for these medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, has skyrocketed, causing manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to struggle to keep up.
Researchers analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited their doctors between 2011 and 2023, finding that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Meanwhile, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, highlighted this as a significant public health shift, emphasizing the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients retain access to these treatments amidst rising demand.
The data utilized in the study was sourced from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect a nationwide representation. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to weight loss of up to 26% for users.
The soaring sales of GLP-1 medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, adopting these treatments by 2035.