A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs for individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns among researchers about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. Originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA broadened the usage of GLP-1 medications with the approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of these essential medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the increasing demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes has risen from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, highlighted this trend as a significant public health shift, noting the increased recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits these medications offer for obesity treatment. However, she also emphasized the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.
Utilizing data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, the study acknowledges that the dataset may not be fully representative of the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Nevertheless, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. projected to adopt these treatments by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.