A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises potential concerns about shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 medications mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, initially being approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to keep up with the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate a decline in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not represent the national population accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to expand their production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with estimates suggesting that around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments by 2035.