A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs. The study indicates that the percentage of individuals without diabetes receiving these medications is increasing, while the number of prescriptions for diabetic patients is declining.
Researchers warn that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments. GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss treatments, such as Wegovy.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to meet the soaring demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Findings showed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to above 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo commented on the findings, stating, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity for ensuring that diabetes patients retain access to these treatments.”
The research drawn from the healthcare software company TriNetX may not reflect the entire national population. Over the past few years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-reducing effects, with studies showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
As a result, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become leading pharmaceutical firms globally, driven by skyrocketing sales of these drugs. However, the increased demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.