A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among people without diabetes, while prescriptions for patients with diabetes are on the decline. Researchers warn that this shift could lead to shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021, significantly broadening its usage. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of these drugs—this includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet the surging demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans over a span from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. In contrast, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients continue to access these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends. Recently, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, though the high demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 and anticipates that the number of people using these medications in the U.S. will rise to approximately 31.5 million by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.