A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for individuals with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concern that this trend could lead to shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that helps control blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval of GLP-1 treatments like Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team, comprising experts from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations, examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, one of the co-first authors of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients maintain access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the overwhelming demand has posed challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could hit $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or around 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.