A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study express concern that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 medications, initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, function by simulating a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. The approval of Wegovy for weight loss by the Food and Drug Administration in 2021 has contributed to the growing interest in these drugs.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the surging demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and partner institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, representing a major public health shift. However, it raises concerns regarding potential shortages and the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software firm, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical entities globally. However, high demand has created challenges for many patients trying to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest heavily in enhancing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million Americans, or about 9% of the population, to adopt these medications by 2035.