A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of increased prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduce appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA sanctioned Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021. Since then, newly popular medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic have seen an increase in demand, which has led to production challenges for manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, this also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that diabetes patients still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect a national representative sample.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and the ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, although the high demand has led to challenges for patients trying to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly to increase their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these medications will reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will be using these drugs.