A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of prescribing GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This change raises alarms over potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for managing type 2 diabetes. However, with the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to meet increasing demand for these medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted the significant public health shift as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for treating obesity. However, the trend also highlights concerns over potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that patients with diabetes retain access to these drugs.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not be nationally representative. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, resulting in weight loss of up to 26% for users.
The soaring sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, this high demand has created challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. As a response, both companies have invested heavily to increase their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.