A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes have decreased. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that helps manage blood sugar and curbs appetite. Originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded approval in 2021 for Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment aimed at weight loss.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs— including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other facilities examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented that this data highlights a significant shift in public health, as healthcare providers increasingly recognize the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment. However, this trend also raises concerns about ensuring access to these treatments for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends.
Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite, with studies showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
As the sales of these drugs soar, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Still, the high demand has made it difficult for certain patients to get their prescriptions filled. Both companies have committed to investing billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.