A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions for individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift has raised concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Following this, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, including brands like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo highlighted the implications, stating that healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift. However, the study also underscores the need to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these essential treatments.
The data utilized in this study came from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the national landscape. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, aiding users in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Yet, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.