A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in prescriptions for those with diabetes. This trend has raised concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and decreases appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded the approval for Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication, for weight loss purposes.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which indicates a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that patients with diabetes maintain access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the high demand has also led to difficulties for some patients in having their prescriptions filled. To address this, both companies have invested heavily to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the United States—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.