A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs for individuals without diabetes, while the number of new prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining. The researchers highlight concerns regarding potential shortages of these treatments due to this shift.
GLP-1 medications, initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, help regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite. In 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. This development has led to increased demand for GLP-1 drugs, such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, prompting manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to struggle to keep up with production.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans with at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. Their findings showed that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, noted that this trend reflects a growing recognition of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment but simultaneously raises alarm about the need to guarantee continued access for diabetes patients.
The research utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software firm, though its national representativeness may be limited. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite suppression properties, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
Sales of these medications have skyrocketed, elevating Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has led to challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting significant investments by both companies to increase production capacity.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. likely to adopt these drugs by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.