A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend of prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns regarding possible shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded approval to include the use of Wegovy for weight loss purposes. Following this expansion, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, this trend also raises alarms about potential shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients retain access to these vital treatments.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software firm, which may not provide a fully representative national sample. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies. Nevertheless, high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significant resources to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and predict that around 31.5 million people in the U.S. will be using these treatments by 2035, accounting for approximately 9% of the population.