A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend in prescriptions of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. This change raises concerns about possible shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and decrease appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, following FDA approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, demand has surged, leading to challenges in consistent supply from manufacturers such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023 and found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70%. Simultaneously, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift indicates a growing recognition of these medications’ benefits for obesity treatment but also raises alarms about medication availability for diabetic patients.
The study’s data was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the entire population. The appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have driven their popularity, with users able to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
As a result of the soaring demand for these medications, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, although some patients are experiencing difficulties securing their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with about 31.5 million individuals, or approximately 9% of the U.S. population, projected to adopt these treatments by 2035.