A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which have been approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, work by mimicking a hormone that regulates appetite and blood sugar. In 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since that time, companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to meet the increasing demand for their GLP-1 products, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while those without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which indicates a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not reflect national trends accurately. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
Demand for these drugs has significantly boosted the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, yet many patients are experiencing difficulties in filling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase production capacity. Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. expected to adopt these treatments by 2035, accounting for around 9% of the population.