A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while the number of prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining. This shift has raised concerns about possible shortages of these important medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss treatments, specifically with the approval of Wegovy.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 treatments, which include medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Research conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. In contrast, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift.” However, Yeo also expressed concern about ensuring that patients with diabetes retain access to these vital treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not be representative of the entire national population. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has created difficulties for some patients looking to refill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase their production capacity for these medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.