A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are decreasing. Researchers, who analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors from 2011 to 2023, found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Concurrently, the share of new users without diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 drugs, designed to mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021. This shift has led to concerns about potential shortages of these medications, particularly as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly struggle to meet the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. Nonetheless, she emphasized the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetic patients.
The rising popularity of GLP-1 drugs is driven by their appetite-suppressing effects, which can help users lose up to 26% of their body weight. Consequently, sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for certain patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., approximately 9% of the population, expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.