A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. Researchers express concern that this shift may lead to shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to imitate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and diminishes appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight management in 2021. Since then, manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with soaring demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Experts from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dipped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo emphasized the implications of these trends, stating that healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment, marking a notable public health transition. However, this raises vital questions regarding the availability of these medications for diabetes patients.
The data for this study was sourced from healthcare analytics company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national landscape. With the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs leading to significant weight loss—up to 26% of body weight in some cases—these medications have surged in popularity.
The explosive growth in sales of GLP-1 drugs has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of some of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally, yet high demand has created challenges for patients seeking to fill prescriptions. In response, both companies have allocated billions to boost production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could soar to $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. expected to adopt these treatments by 2035—roughly 9% of the population.