A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for managing type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded the approval of the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
Since this change, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to meet the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, a category that includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. Findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, the co-first author of the study. “However, this trend also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients maintain access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be representative of the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has created challenges for patients trying to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly to increase production of these drugs.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million Americans, or about 9% of the population, expected to adopt these medications by 2035.