A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes have decreased. This trend has raised concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic hormones that control blood sugar and suppress appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight management with the approval of Wegovy.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the leading manufacturers of GLP-1 medications including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are struggling to keep pace with increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. In contrast, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
The co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, noted that this data indicates a significant shift as healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity management. However, it also raises issues regarding the availability of these essential treatments for diabetes patients.
The study’s data originated from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not accurately reflect national prescribing patterns.
GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. The booming sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. This high demand has resulted in difficulties for certain patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, making up approximately 9% of the population.