A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable increase in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to people without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 by approving Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the growing demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications in addressing obesity. However, it also raises alarms about ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these essential treatments.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not be fully representative on a national scale. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Nevertheless, some patients have encountered difficulties in filling their prescriptions due to high demand. Both companies are investing billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.