A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes have declined. This shift has raised concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone regulating blood sugar and reducing appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. Their use expanded in 2021 when the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the increasing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this reflects a significant shift in public health perspectives regarding obesity treatment. However, she also emphasized the need to ensure that diabetes patients maintain access to these essential medications.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have contributed to their growing popularity, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the increased demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions in production to meet this demand.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—potentially adopting these treatments by 2035.