A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine has revealed a significant shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 drugs, showing that the number of individuals without diabetes receiving these medications is increasing while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining.
The study emphasizes concerns regarding potential shortages of these treatments, which are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and decreases appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the use of GLP-1 medications, such as Wegovy, was expanded in 2021 when the FDA authorized them for weight loss.
As a result, both major producers of GLP-1 drugs—Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly—are experiencing challenges in meeting the soaring demand for these medications, which include options like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions assessed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes plummeted from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests a growing recognition among healthcare providers regarding the benefits of these drugs for obesity treatment, marking a notable public health change. However, Yeo also raised alarms about ensuring that diabetes patients maintain access to these essential medications.
The study’s findings were based on data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their effective appetite-suppressing properties, allowing users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The skyrocketing sales in this sector have propelled both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, yet such demand has resulted in difficulties for patients trying to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance production capacity.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could approach $105 billion by 2030, with an expectation that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.