A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable increase in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The research raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were initially designed for type 2 diabetes management. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since that approval, companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been striving to produce sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet the growing demand.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. It found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, which marks a significant shift in public health,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as some of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, high demand has complicated the process for some patients to obtain their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in boosting production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., accounting for about 9% of the population, expected to adopt these medications by 2035.