A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their use, approving Wegovy specifically for weight loss. Consequently, pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from almost 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift.” However, she also highlighted concerns over ensuring access to these treatments for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national landscape. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects and the capacity to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The dramatic increase in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Still, the soaring demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in expanding production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that by 2035, around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will be using these medications.