A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 drugs, showing an increase in their use among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. The authors of the study expressed concern about potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to mimic a hormone responsible for managing blood sugar levels and curbing appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes care, the FDA expanded the approval of the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the soaring demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings showed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, one of the study’s co-authors. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure access for diabetic patients.”
The study leveraged data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although the sample may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. This surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but it has also led to challenges in fulfilling prescriptions for some patients. To address this issue, both companies have made substantial investments to increase their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. — approximately 9% of the population — expected to adopt these medications by 2035.