A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic hormones that manage blood sugar and curb appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their use to include weight loss treatment with the approval of Wegovy.
Currently, pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in manufacturing enough GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show a decrease in new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Meanwhile, new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers regarding the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, it also signals a risk of shortages and a critical need to ensure that diabetes patients continue to have access to these medications.
The researchers utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not provide a fully representative national sample.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their effectiveness in weight loss, with some users losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the skyrocketing demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly to enhance production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—by 2035.