A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, Wegovy, one of the GLP-1 treatments, received FDA approval for weight loss in 2021.
In light of this expanded use, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy growing demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, highlighted that this data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity management, signaling a significant public health shift. However, Yeo also warned of possible medication shortages and emphasized the importance of ensuring ongoing access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not reflect a national representation.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity in recent years due to their appetite suppression effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Meanwhile, intense demand has left some patients struggling to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in enhancing their production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could grow to $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.